Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to open lower on Monday amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, rising crude oil prices and weak global risk sentiment.
Gift Nifty was trading near the 24,092 mark, indicating a gap-down opening of nearly 142 points compared to the previous Nifty futures close.
Global sentiment turned cautious after US President Donald Trump and Iran rejected the latest peace proposals aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. The development pushed Brent crude prices above $104 per barrel, triggering concerns over inflation, currency pressure and global economic uncertainty.
Asian markets traded mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained modestly, while South Korea’s KOSPI hit a fresh record high. However, US stock futures turned negative after the breakdown in diplomatic negotiations.
On Wall Street, technology-led buying pushed the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite to record highs on Friday, supported by gains in AI and semiconductor stocks including NVIDIA, AMD and Intel.
Back home, investors are expected to closely monitor crude oil prices, foreign institutional investor flows, quarterly earnings and global geopolitical developments this week.
Market analysts believe the Nifty 50 has re-entered a broader consolidation range between 24,000 and 24,500. Technical charts indicate 24,067 as a crucial short-term support zone, with strong resistance seen around 24,300–24,500 ahead of weekly expiry.
Rising oil prices are also expected to keep the rupee and rate-sensitive sectors under pressure. Automobile, aviation, paints and fuel-intensive sectors may remain volatile if crude sustains above current levels.
At the same time, selective opportunities are likely to continue in mid- and small-cap stocks supported by domestic consumption, infrastructure spending and earnings visibility.
Investors will also track the potential impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remarks encouraging reduced fuel consumption, work-from-home adoption and postponement of gold purchases to ease pressure on the Indian rupee and import bill.
