Mumbai, December 23, 2025 (08:30 AM IST) – Indian benchmarks are poised for a flat to mildly positive start amid a dearth of fresh triggers and subdued global cues, with traders treading cautiously in the holiday-shortened week. Gift Nifty futures hover around 25,950, signaling a steady open for the Nifty after Friday's 0.58% rebound to 25,966.40. The Sensex, meanwhile, could eye 84,900 levels following its 0.53% close at 84,929.36, buoyed by FII inflows and a softer rupee pullback. Broader sentiment remains guarded, with selective buying in defensives and rate-sensitive names ahead of RBI's policy minutes later today.
Core sector output inched up to 1.8% YoY in November (vs. October's contraction), led by cement's sharp 14.5% surge, but the Oct-Nov average of 0.8% underscores tepid industrial momentum. ICRA's Aditi Nayar flags IIP growth at 3.5-4.5% for the month, tempering growth optimism. Globally, Asian peers trade mixed—Nikkei up 0.3% on yen weakness, while Hang Seng dips 0.2%—as Wall Street's tech-led rally fades. Oil holds steady near $72/bbl, but silver's record $69.59/oz rally lifts metal packs.
Key Headlines at a Glance
- RBI Rate Cut Bets Firm Up: Motilal Oswal sees another 25bps trim in February, citing sub-4% inflation in H1FY27 and softening core pressures. December's easing already dials back real rates; MPC minutes stress support for capex amid MSME slowdowns.
- Forex Reserves Hit $688.95 Bn: RBI data shows a $1.69 Bn weekly jump, bolstering rupee stability. Oman FTA rollout eyed in 3 months; GTRI pushes for NZ trade double via agri ties and duty cuts.
- Export Rebound on US Restock: November shipments perk up on supply-chain shifts and holiday builds, per GTRI—key for Q3 earnings tailwinds.
- IPO Spotlight: KSH International lists today after tepid 0.83x subscription (QIBs at 1.06x). Axiom Gas Engineering bags NSE Emerge nod for ₹47.46 Cr fresh issue; FY25 PAT up 35% to ₹7.74 Cr on Auto LPG push.
- Kajaria Ceramics Fraud Fallout: Vendor scam at bathware arm (₹20 Cr hit) prompts controls upgrade; PL Capital trims FY28 EPS 2% but holds at ₹1,083 TP (17% EBITDA margin by FY28). Tiles vol CAGR at 5% through FY28.
Stocks in Focus Today
A clutch of names grabs the limelight on deal buzz, orders, and launches—traders watch for volume spikes:
| Stock | Sector/Trigger | Key Buzz |
|---|---|---|
| Ambuja Cements | Cement | Adani group's Q3 capex push; core sector cement surge adds tailwind. |
| ACC | Cement | Peer momentum; potential M&A in infra plays. |
| Orient Cement | Cement | Volume recovery bets amid 14.5% Nov growth; buy-on-dips chatter. |
| GMR Power | Power/Infra | Subsidiary debt refinance at sub-8% rates; eases ₹5,000 Cr load. |
| Aion Tech | Tech | EV component orders; festive restock lifts small-cap IT. |
| HCL Tech | IT | Q3 deal wins preview; USD strength aids margins. |
| Stanley Lifestyle | Consumer Durables | Furniture export ramp-up; US holiday demand spillover. |
| Belrise Industries | Auto Ancillary | Tyre radialization drive; raw material cost easing. |
| Suditi Industries | Textiles | ₹58.87 Cr QIP plan for capex; fabric export focus. |
| GPT Infraprojects | Infra | ₹670 Cr order bag from NHAI; order book swells to ₹3,200 Cr. |
| Cipla | Pharma | Inhaled insulin launch in India; diabetes market entry at ₹500/vial. |
| Ramco Cements | Cement | ₹515 Cr asset sale to peers; debt reduction of 10% FY25 target. |
| IIFL Capital Services | NBFC | Bullish call: Buy at ₹332, SL ₹295, Tgt ₹395; 7% Mon surge signals break to ₹400. |
Technical Picks: IIFL Capital Services – Momentum Builder
- CMP: ₹332 | Outlook: Bullish Short-Term
- 7% Mon pop confirms uptrend; support cluster at ₹325/₹305.
- Resistance at ₹342—break eyes ₹400 in 2-3 weeks.
- Trade Plan: Buy now/accumulate ₹324; trail SL to ₹338 (at ₹347), ₹352 (₹365), ₹370 (₹385). Exit ₹395.
- Risk Note: Technicals-based; trading involves losses.
Global Snapshot (As of 08:00 AM IST)
- US: Nasdaq +0.8% Fri close on AI hype; Fed cut odds at 85% for Jan.
- Asia: Nikkei +0.3%, Kospi flat; China PMI contraction persists.
- Commodities: Brent $72.50 (+0.2%); Gold $2,650/oz (-0.1%); Silver $69.59 (record).
- Currencies: USD/INR 84.25 (-0.05%); EUR/USD 1.045.
Markets await RBI minutes (10 AM) for rate hints; Q3 earnings season kicks off with HCL Tech tomorrow. Volatility low at 12.5 on India VIX—bargain hunters eye dips in metals/IT. Stay tuned for intra-day moves. Compiled from BLKS, Reuters, ICRA, PL Capital; levels indicative.
