New Delhi: Indian equity markets are expected to open the Christmas week on a positive but cautious note, with global macroeconomic data, foreign fund flows, currency movements and developments from China emerging as key drivers. The holiday-shortened trading week beginning December 22 is likely to see range-bound action, with analysts pegging the Nifty’s near-term band between 25,700 and 26,300.
Global cues in focus
Investors will closely track a series of global economic triggers, led by the US Q3 GDP data due on December 23, which is expected to moderate to the 3–3.5% range compared with 3.8% earlier. The print is seen as crucial for shaping expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.
Other important US indicators lined up include PCE inflation data, durable goods orders and jobs numbers, all of which could influence global risk appetite. Elsewhere, UK GDP data (December 22), Japan’s central bank policy minutes, and key housing and inflation readings from major economies will remain on investors’ radar.
China developments watched closely
Markets are also monitoring the six-day meeting of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, scheduled from December 22 to 27. The session will deliberate on issues such as childcare legislation, environmental codes, ethnic unity bills and audit reports. Global investors are keenly watching the meeting for any fiscal or policy signals that could hint at further stimulus measures from Beijing.
Domestic flows and currency movement
On the domestic front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have turned net buyers over the last three trading sessions, purchasing equities worth around ₹3,600 crore, after heavy outflows of nearly ₹19,857 crore earlier in December. Analysts believe sustained FII inflows could provide near-term support to benchmark indices.
The rupee has also staged a recovery, strengthening to around 89.55 per dollar from recent lows near 91.07, lending some stability to market sentiment. Key domestic data points this week include infrastructure output numbers for November (due December 22) and RBI bond auctions on December 23. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remain supportive, having invested ₹12,062 crore last week and over ₹52,000 crore so far in December.
Technical outlook remains range-bound
From a technical perspective, analysts see strong support for the Nifty around 25,700–25,800, while resistance is placed in the 26,000–26,200 zone. Notably, India VIX has fallen to a record low near 9.5, indicating subdued volatility but also raising the risk of sharp moves if unexpected triggers emerge.
IPO and corporate activity
Primary market activity remains active, with 11 IPOs collectively seeking about ₹755 crore opening for subscription during the week. At least five companies are scheduled to list, including KSH International, adding to market buzz despite the holiday-truncated schedule.
