Indian equity markets head into the final trading session of the week under pressure, with GIFT Nifty extending losses beyond 150 points, signalling a cautious start ahead of the Union Budget presentation on Sunday. Markets will remain closed on Saturday before reopening post-Budget.
Despite the weak global cues, the Nifty 50 has gained 360 points over the last three sessions, supported by short covering and a technical rebound from a double-bottom formation. On Thursday, the index recovered more than 250 points from intraday lows to post its third consecutive gain.
Market Setup
Key Nifty resistance: 25,450
Next upside target: 25,600
Crucial support: 25,295 (close below this could negate the breakout)
The Bank Nifty crossed 60,000 intraday on Thursday and has rallied over 1,000 points in three sessions, reflecting strength in financials.
Brokerage Watch
CLSA on Swiggy
Downgrade: Hold
Target Price: ₹335
Missed Q3 revenue and EBITDA estimates
Food delivery showed healthy GOV and revenue growth with in-line EBITDA
Quick commerce underperformed on growth and profitability
Contribution breakeven guidance retained, but execution path seen as steeper
Paytm: Mixed Views from Global Brokerages
Morgan Stanley
Rating: Equal-weight | TP: ₹1,175
Revenue growth moderated to 20% YoY
Sequential contribution margins declined
EBITDA remained strong due to cost controls
Management cited seasonality, lower DLG loan disbursals, and conservative revenue recognition
Jefferies
Rating: Buy | TP: ₹1,450
Q3 profit of ₹2.3 billion slightly ahead of estimates
Revenue up 20% YoY, led by financial services
Contribution profit grew 30% with margin at 57%
Lower indirect costs supported profitability
Clarity on replacement of PIDF incentives remains key
CLSA
Rating: Upgrade to Perform | TP: ₹1,000
Q3 performance broadly in line
GMV growth at 23%
Payments take rate moderated QoQ
Lending revenue grew 10% QoQ
Marketing services revenue stabilised
PIDF income ended in December 2025; PBT estimates cut by 3–5%
Dixon Technologies
CLSA
Rating: Buy | TP: ₹15,880
Q3 revenue declined 28% QoQ, in line with estimates
Smartphone demand impacted by elevated memory prices
Progress seen in margin-accretive backward integration
Awaiting ECMS approvals and clarity on PLI extension
Nomura
Rating: Buy | TP: ₹14,678
Growth recovery expected to drive re-rating
Estimates 51% EPS CAGR over FY26–28F
Government approvals remain a key catalyst
Consumer Sector Calls (CLSA)
Jubilant FoodWorks: Upgraded to Hold, TP ₹477
Westlife Foodworld: Upgraded to Hold, TP ₹500
Both stocks down ~30% over the past year
Slower sales growth largely priced in; valuation comfort improving
Global & Macro Cues
US markets: Nasdaq closed down 0.72% after a volatile session
Brent crude: Up 3.2% to $70.61 amid Middle East tensions
Gold: Highly volatile; fell from $5,600 intraday, settled at $5,440
Dollar index: Up 0.30%
Rupee: Hit a low of 91.99 per dollar
US President Donald Trump signalled an imminent announcement of his Federal Reserve Chair nominee, while also reiterating concerns over high interest costs.
Stocks in Focus Today
ITC, Vedanta, Dixon Tech, Voltas, Blue Star, Bajaj Auto, Bank of Baroda, Blue Dart, MOIL, NALCO, Nestlé, Meesho.
Markets are expected to remain volatile through the session as investors position themselves ahead of the Union Budget and react to earnings and brokerage actions.
