ABP Nadu along with research partner CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research), has revealed the findings of its Exit Poll for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry, and West Bengal Assembly Elections 2021.
The ABP Nadu-CVoter Exit Poll predicted that UPA is leading in Tamil Nadu with 46.7% vote share (160 to 172 seats), whereas NDA stands second with 35% vote share (58 to 70 Seats). Others grab the third spot with 10.4% vote share (0 to 3 seats).
Vote Share (%)
| Tamil Nadu | Party Alliance: Votes |
| Alliance Votes: Tamil Nadu | 2021 Projection |
| UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) | 46.7 |
| NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) | 35 |
| MNM | 4.1 |
| AMMK | 3.8 |
| Others | 10.4 |
| Total | 100 |
Seat Projection
| Tamil Nadu | Projected Range Of Seats | |
| Alliance Seats: TamilNadu | From | To |
| UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) | 160 | 172 |
| NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) | 58 | 70 |
| MNM | 0 | 2 |
| AMMK | 0 | 2 |
| Others | 0 | 3 |
| Total | 234 |
In Kerala, it’s a straight-forward electoral battle between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress – led United Democratic Front (UDF).
According to the exit poll, the ruling LDF is expected to retain power in the southern state of Kerala and thus buck the trend of defeating the incumbent every electoral cycle.
LDF is leading in Kerala with 42.8% vote share (71 to 77 seats), whereas UDF stands second with 41.4% vote share (62 to 68 Seats). BJP grabs the third spot in the state with 13.7% vote share (0 to 2 seats).
Vote Share (%)
| Kerala | Party Alliance: Votes |
| Alliance Votes: Kerala | 2021 Projection |
| LDF | 42.8 |
| UDF | 41.4 |
| BJP | 13.7 |
| Others | 2.1 |
| Total | 100 |
Seat Projection
| Kerala | Projected Range Of Seats | |
| Alliance Seats: Kerala | From | To |
| LDF | 71 | 77 |
| UDF | 62 | 68 |
| BJP | 0 | 2 |
| Others | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 140 |
Region wise, the survey shows that LDF and UDF are expected to secure maximum seats of their share from North Kerala. LDF is likely to win 34 to 36 and UDF is projected to get 24 to 26 seats in North Kerala. In South Kerala, LDF is likely to win 21 to 23 seats and UDF is expected to corner 15 to 17 seats. In Central Kerala, while LDF is projected to garner 16 to 18 seats, UDF is expected to win 23 to 25 seats.
In Puducherry, the NDA Alliance (AINRC+BJP+ADMK) is leading with 47.1% vote share (19 to 23 seats), whereas the UPA Alliance (Congress+DMK) stands second with 34.2% vote share (6-10 seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 18.7% vote share (1 to 2 seats).
Vote Share (%)
| Puducherry | Party Alliance: Votes |
| Alliance Votes: Puducherry | 2021 Projection |
| UPA (Congress+DMK) | 34.2 |
| NDA (AINRC+BJP+ADMK) | 47.1 |
| Others | 18.7 |
| Total | 100 |
Seat Projection
| Puducherry | Projected Range Of Seats | |
| Alliance Seats: Puducherry | From | To |
| UPA (Congress+DMK) | 6 | 10 |
| NDA (AINRC+BJP+ADMK) | 19 | 23 |
| Others | 1 | 2 |
| Total | 30 |
The ABP Nadu-CVoter Exit Poll predicted that TMC is leading in West Bengal with 42.1% vote share (152 to 164 seats), whereas BJP stands second with 39.2% vote share (109 to 121 Seats). The Left-Congress-ISF Alliance grabs the third spot with 15.4% vote share (14 to 25 seats).
Vote Share (%)
| West Bengal | Party Alliance: Votes |
| Alliance Votes: West Bengal | 2021 Projection |
| TMC | 42.1 |
| BJP | 39.2 |
| INC+LEFT+ISF | 15.4 |
| Others | 3.3 |
| Total | 100 |
Seat Projection
| West Bengal | Projected Range Of Seats | |
| Alliance Seats: West Bengal | From | To |
| TMC | 152 | 164 |
| BJP | 109 | 121 |
| INC+LEFT | 14 | 25 |
| Others | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 292 |
As for the methodology and survey details, the C-Voter survey reached out to a total of approximately 43630 people in Tamil Nadu, 26447 people in Kerala, 5003 people in Puducherry, and 85000+ people in West Bengal. The results are subject to a margin of error: +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level.
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