With an aim to determine the mood of voters ahead of the upcoming Bihar Assembly Elections, ABP News, along with research partner CVOTER, announced its findings of the final opinion poll today. The poll indicates that the NDA government will emerge victorious in the upcoming 2020 Bihar Assembly elections.
The CVOTER survey revealed that as per public opinion, NDA is leading with 43% vote share (135-159 seats), whereas UPA stands second with 34.6% vote share (77-98 seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 22.4% vote share (5-13 seats).
Chirag Paswan (LJP), who broke the alliance with NDA ahead of Bihar elections, does not appear to be creating magic this time. He is projected to get a maximum of 5 seats.
Furthermore, the survey claimed that, within NDA, BJP is expected to get 73 to 81 seats whereas JDU which is contesting from 115 seats is projected to get 59 to 67 seats.
In terms of strike rate, BJP, which is contesting from 110 seats, is expected to have a strike rate of around 70%. Whereas JDU, which is contesting from 5 more seats than its coalition partner the BJP, is expected to have a strike rate of around 55%.
| Range of NDA Seats | From | To |
| BJP | 73 | 81 |
| HAMS | 0 | 4 |
| JD(U) | 59 | 67 |
| VIP | 3 | 7 |
| NDA Total | 135 | 159 |
| Range of MGB Seats | From | To |
| CPI | 2 | 4 |
| CPI(M) | 0 | 1 |
| CPI(ML)( L) | 7 | 9 |
| INC | 12 | 20 |
| RJD | 56 | 64 |
| UPA Total | 77 | 98 |
| Range of Others Seats | From | To |
| LJP | 1 | 5 |
| Others | 4 | 8 |
| Others Total | 5 | 13 |
| Grand Total | 243 | 243 |
According to the survey commissioned, 52% of the people feel that unemployment is the biggest issue in Bihar, followed by corruption (11%), Electricity/Water/Roads (10%) and status of education facilities (8%).
When asked if there will be tussle between BJP & JDU over the Chief Minister Post (if BJP wins more seats); 61% of the people agreed that a dispute may occur.
Lastly, when asked ‘Who is your most preferable candidate to be the Chief Minister of Bihar?’ 30% of the people chose Nitish Kumar (JDU) and 20% went for Tejashwi Yadav (RJD).
The survey conducted with Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research (CVOTER) keeps the viewers apprised of the various developing political opinions, while also understanding the voters’ frame of mind.
Current projections are based on CVOTER daily tracking poll conducted from 01st October 2020 to 23rd October 2020, among 18+ adults, including likely voters.
As for the methodology and survey details, the survey reached out to a total of approximately 30,678 people in Bihar and was conducted through CATI (Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews). The sample spread of the survey covers all 243 assembly segments. The margin of error is +/- 3% at State level and +/-5% at regional level.
One of the most closely watched states in India’s electoral politics, Bihar, will begin the 1st phase of the elections on October 28th, 2020 wherein 71 constituencies and 16 Districts will go for polls in 31,000 polling stations. This will be followed by the 2nd phase on 3rd November, 2020 wherein 94 constituencies, and 17 Districts will go for polls in 42,000 Polling Stations. Lastly, the 3rd phase will be held on 7th November, 2020 wherein 78 constituencies and 15 Districts will go for polls in 33,000 polling stations. The counting will take place on 10th November, 2020.
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