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NIVAR over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 11 kmph

NIVAR over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 11 kmph 1

According to the Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorology Department, Delhi:  (at 11.30 Hrs IST)             

 The severe cyclonic storm NIVAR over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 11 kmph during past six hours and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 25th November, 2020 over southwest Bay of Bengal about 240 km east-southeast of Cuddalore, about 250 km east southeast of Puducherry and 300 km south southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 06 hours.

It is very likely to move west northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night of 25th and early hours of 26th November 2020 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph.

Forecast track and intensity are given below:

Date/Time(IST)Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)Maximum sustained surfacewind speed (Kmph)Category of cyclonic disturbance
25.11.20/083010.7/81.7105-115 gusting to 130Severe Cyclonic Storm
25.11.20/113011.0/81.3110-120 gusting to 135Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
25.11.20/173011.3/80.7120-130 gusting to 145Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
25.11.20/233011.9/80.0120-130 gusting to 145Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
26.11.20/053012.5/79.390-100 gusting to 110Severe Cyclonic Storm
26.11.20/173013.0/78.555-65 gusting to 75Deep Depression
27.11.20/053013.8/77.535-45 gusting to 55Depression

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity very likely over coastal and north interior Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during 25th and 26th November and southeast Telangana during 26th November, 2020. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall activity also very likely over coastal & north interior Tamilnadu & Puducherry (Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Chennai, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Myladuthirai, Ariyalur, PerambalurKallakurchi, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Puducherry and Karaikal districts) during 25th; over Nellore and Chittoor districts of Andhra Pradesh on 25th and over Rayalaseema & southeast Telangana on 26th November, 2020.

Sub-Divisions25 Nov 2020*26 Nov 2020*27 Nov 2020*
South Coastal Andhra PradeshRainfall  at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy fallsRainfall  at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy fallsRainfall  at many places
Coastal & North  Interior Tamilnadu, Puducherry & KaraikalRainfall  at most places with heavy to very heavy  rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at  isolated placesRainfall  at many places  with  heavy rainfall at isolated placesRainfall  at many places 
South Interior KarnatakaRainfall  at many  places with heavy rainfall at isolated placesRainfall  at many  places with heavy rainfall at isolated placesRainfall  at many  places
RayalaseemaRainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy  rainfall with extremely heavy falls at  isolated placesRainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy  rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at  isolated placesRainfall  at many  places
TelanganaRainfall  at  a few placesRainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy  rainfall and extremely heavy falls at  isolated places over  southeast TelanganaRainfall  at many  places

(ii) Wind warning

·   Gale wind speed reaching 105-115 kmph gusting to 130 kmph is prevailing over Southwest Bay of Bengal. It would further increase becoming 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph during afternoon of 25th to early hours of 26th November.

·   Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is prevailing along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coast and over Gulf of Mannar. It will gradually increase and become gale wind speed reaching 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph along & off coastal districts of north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, Puducherry, Villupuram & Chengalpattu) and80-90 gusting to 100 kmph very likely over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallur districts during afternoon of 25th to early hrs of 26th November, 2020.

·   Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph very likely over adjoining  westcentral Bay of Bengal and along & off South Andhra Pradesh (Nellore & Chittoor districts), Gulf of Mannar and along and off south coastal districts of Tamil Nadu during afternoon of 25th to early hrs of 26th November, 2020.

(iii) Sea condition

·         Sea condition is very high over Southwest Bay of Bengal and very rough to high along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Andhra Pradesh coasts and over Gulf of Mannar. It would gradually become phenomenal over Southwest Bay of Bengal and along & off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts during afternoon of 25th to early hrs of 26th November, 2020.

(iv)  Strom Surge Warning

·         Tidal wave of about 1-1.5m height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of north coastal districts of Tamilnadu & Puducherry near the place of landfall.

(v) (a)  Damage expected over Nagapattinam,  Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, , Villupuram & Chengalpattu districts of Tamilnadu and Karaikal & Puducherry:

Ø  Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses.  Some damage to old pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.

Ø  Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.

Ø  Major damage to Kutcha and and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.  Disruption of railways, overhead powerlines and signalling systems.

Ø  Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.

Ø  Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

Ø  Visibility severely affected.

      (b)  Damage expected over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallaur districts of Tamilnadu and adjoining Andhra Pradesh:

Ø  Damage to thatched houses/ huts with possibility of roof tops being blown off and unattached metal sheets may fly.

Ø  Damage to power and communication lines.

Ø  Damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.

Ø  Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of trees. Severe damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops & orchards. Large dead limbs blown from trees.

Ø Major damage to coastal crops. Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vi) Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:

Ø  Total suspension of fishing operations.

Ø  Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places.

Ø  People in affected areas to remain in safe places and indoors.  

Ø  Judicious regulation of rail, road and air traffic.

Ø  Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.

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