ABP Network-CVoter Survey unravels the political battles of the year

ABP Network is the first media network to conduct an Opinion Poll Survey for all four states and a union territory that go to polls in 2021 – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry. Conducted with research partner CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research), the opinion poll survey aims to provide a clearer picture of how the ballot game stands for the five states.

Last year, as the highly-dramatic Bihar Elections drew to a close, ABP Network’s Exit Poll was the only poll in the industry to hit the mark. It not only vindicated a prediction of a close fight, but also produced an accurate vote share projection.

What’s more is that, this Opinion Poll Survey marks the beginning of ABP Network’s reign in the southern region as the network is likely to soon catapult into the Tamil Nadu market. 

The ABPNetwork-CVoter survey revealed that as per public opinion, TMC is leading in West Bengal with 43.0% vote share (154 to 162 seats), whereas BJP stands second with 37.5% vote share (98 to 106 seats).

West BengalParty Alliance : Votes
Alliance Votes2016 Results2021 ProjectionSwing
TMC44.943.0-1.9
BJP10.237.527.3
INC+LEFT32.011.8-20.2
Others12.97.7-5.2
Total100.0100.00.0
West BengalProjected Range Of Seats
Alliance SeatsFromSeatsTo
TMC154to162
BJP98to106
INC+LEFT26to34
Others2to6
Total294

In Tamil Nadu, UPA is leading with 41.1% vote share (158 to 166 seats), whereas NDA stands second with 28.7% vote share (60 to 68 Seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 15.7% vote share (0 to 4 seats).

Tamil NaduParty Alliance : Votes
Alliance Votes2016 Results2021 ProjectionSwing
UPA (DMK+Congress+Others)39.441.11.7
NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others)43.728.7-15.0
MNM0.06.76.7
AMMK0.07.87.8
Others16.915.7-1.2
Total100.0100.00.0
Tamil NaduProjected Range Of Seats
Alliance SeatsFromSeatsTo
UPA (DMK+Congress+Others)158to166
NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others)60to68
MNM0to4
AMMK2to6
Others0to4
Total234

In Assam, NDA is leading with 43.1% vote share (73 to 81 seats), whereas UPA stands second with 34.9% vote share (36 to 44 Seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 13.8% vote share (0 to 4 seats).

AssamParty Alliance : Votes
Alliance Votes : Assam2016 Results2021 ProjectionSwing
NDA41.943.11.2
UPA31.034.93.9
AIUDF13.08.2-4.8
Others14.113.8-0.3
Total100.0100.00.0
AssamProjected Range Of Seats
Alliance Seats : AssamFromSeatsTo
NDA73to81
UPA36to44
AIUDF5to9
Others0to4
Total126

In Kerala, LDF is leading with 41.6% vote share (81 to 89 seats), whereas UDF stands second with 34.6% vote share (49 to 57 Seats). BJP grabs the third spot with mere 15.3% vote share (0 to 2 seats).

KeralaParty Alliance : Votes
Alliance Votes : Kerala2016 Results2021 ProjectionSwing
LDF43.541.6-1.9
UDF38.834.6-4.2
BJP14.915.30.4
Others2.88.55.7
Total100.0100.00.0
KeralaProjected Range Of Seats
Alliance Seats : KeralaFromSeatsTo
LDF81to89
UDF49to57
BJP0to2
Others0to2
Total140

In Puducherry, NDA is leading with 44.4% vote share (14 to 18 seats), whereas SDA stands second with 42.6% vote share (12-16 seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 10.7% vote share (0 to 1 seat).

PuducherryParty Alliance : Votes
Alliance Votes : Puducherry2016 Results2021 ProjectionSwing
SDA (Congress+DMK)39.542.63.1
NDA (AINRC+BJP+ADMK)30.544.413.9
MNM0.02.32.3
Others30.010.7-19.3
Total100.0100.00.0
PuducherryProjected Range Of Seats
Alliance Seats : PuducherryFromSeatsTo
SDA (Congress+DMK)12to16
NDA (AINRC+BJP+ADMK)14to18
MNM0to1
Others0to1
Total30

The past two years have certainly been action-packed as far as elections and shifts of power are concerned, but 2021 is going to be even more momentous. Key regions like Tamil Nadu in South and Assam in North-East will make the political battle all the more engrossing.

As for the methodology and survey details, the CVoter survey reached out to a total of approximately 5000+ people in  Assam, 6000+ people in Kerala, 1000+ people in Puducherry, 15000+ people in Tamil Nadu, 18000+ people in West Bengal, making it a total of 45000+ people. It was conducted through CATI (Telephonic survey).

About ABP Network

An innovative media and content creation company, ABP Network is a credible voice in the broadcast & digital sphere, with a multi-language portfolio of news channels reaching 535 million individuals in India. ABP Studios, which comes under the purview of ABP Creations – the content innovation arm of the network – creates, produces, and licenses original, path-breaking content outside of news. ABP Network is a group entity of ABP, which was incorporated almost 100 years ago and continues to reign as a leading Indian Media Conglomerate.

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