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National Statistical Office released the Second Advance Estimates of National Income: Quarterly Estimates of GDP

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the Second Advance Estimates of National Income, 2020-21 as well as Quarterly Estimates of GDP for the quarter October-December (Q3), 2020-21 along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of GDP both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices.

2.         The Second Advance Estimates (SAE) for 2020-21 has been released in accordance with the release calendar of National Accounts. Quarterly Estimates of previous years along with the first and second quarter estimates of 2020-21 released earlier have undergone revision in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts. The First Revised Estimates (FRE) for the year 2019-20 compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information (released on 29th January, 2021) were taken into account in SAE 2020-21 instead of estimates based on the benchmark-indicator method employed at the time of First Advance Estimates (FAE) released on 7th January, 2021. Thus, revision in SAE 2020-21 is owing to revision in the benchmark estimates and updated information available on various indicators used for compiling these estimates.

3.         The approach for compiling the advance estimates is based on Benchmark-Indicator Method. The sector-wise estimates are obtained by extrapolation of indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of first 9 months of the financial year, (ii) financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate Sector available upto quarter ending December, 2020 (iii) Second Advance Estimates of Crop Production, (iv) Accounts of Central & State Governments, besides information on indicators like Deposits & Credits, Passenger and Freight Earnings of Railways, Passengers and Cargo Handled by Civil Aviation, Cargo Handled at Major Sea Ports, Sales of Commercial Vehicles etc., available for first 9/10 months of the financial year. The Revised Estimates of Tax Revenue for 2020-21 as available in the Annual Financial Statement of the Central Government for 2021-22, latest information on the website of Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices.  For obtaining Taxes on Products at Constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes. Information available on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. in the Union Budget 2020-21 documents and those based on detailed analysis of budget documents of States for 2020-21 were also put to use. Revised Estimates for the major subsidies (especially food subsidies) presented in Budget 2021-22 show a sharp spike from Rs 2.27 lakh crore in BE 2020-21 to Rs 5.95 lakh crore in RE 2020-21. Revised provision of subsidies has been taken into account after adjusting for arrears of previous years as per information received from Ministry of Finance.

4.     Extrapolation of some indicators like IIP has been done by making use of the information available for the first 9 months of the current financial year along with necessary modification in the projection technique to account for the pandemic led fluctuations. Percentage changes in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure.

5.        Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2020-21 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 134.09 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2019-20 of ₹ 145.69 lakh crore, released on 29th January 2021. The growth in GDP during 2020-21 is estimated at -8.0 percent as compared to 4.0 percent in 2019-20.

6.         GDP at Current Prices in the year 2020-21 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 195.86 lakh crore, as against ₹ 203.51 lakh crore in 2019-20, showing a growth rate of -3.8 percent.

7.         The Per Capita Income in real terms (at 2011-12 Prices) during 2020-21 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 85,929 as compared to ₹ 94,566 in the year 2019-20, giving a growth of -9.1 percent during 2019-20, as against 2.5 per cent in the previous year. The Per Capita Income at current prices during 2020-21 is estimated to be ₹ 127,768, showing a decline of 4.8 percent, as compared to ₹ 134,186 during 2019-20.

8.         GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2020-21 is estimated at ₹ 36.22 lakh crore, as against ₹ 36.08 lakh crore in Q3 of 2019-20, showing a growth of 0.4 percent.

9.         The measures taken by the Government to contain spread of the Covid-19 pandemic have had an impact on the economic activities as well as on the data collection mechanisms. The data challenges in the case of other underlying macro-economic indicators like IIP and CPI, used in the estimation of National Accounts aggregates and specific measures, if any, taken by the government in the following months with a view to address the pandemic led economic situation will have implications on subsequent revision of these estimates.            

10.       Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo sharp revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take this into consideration when interpreting the figures.

11.       Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity, Expenditures on GDP for Second Advance Estimates, Third Quarter (Q3) and April-December Estimates for the years 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with percent changes and applicable rates, are given in Statements 1 to 12.

12.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter January-March, 2021 (Q4 of 2020-21) and Provisional Annual Estimates for the year 2020-21 will be on 31.05.2021.

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