Exim Bank expects India’s merchandise exports to grow marginally to $82 bn in Q2

India’s merchandise exports are expected to grow marginally to USD 82 billion (about Rs 5.82 lakh crore) during the current quarter of this fiscal, while non-oil exports may fall a tad to USD 69.48 billion (about Rs 4.93 lakh crore), Exim Bank has forecasted.

   India’s merchandise exports to increase from USD 81.4 billion to USD 82 billion, with an expected growth rate of 0.6 per cent from a year ago during the second quarter of 2019-20 (July-September), the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) said in its forecast.

Also, the non-oil exports to marginally decline by 0.2 per cent from USD 69.64 billion to USD 69.48 billion in this period, it said.

The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI).

The ELI gauges the outlook for country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country on a quarterly basis.

It is based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

Exim Bank said the forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model.


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